Gallup International/MPG has released an updated pre-election poll, taken between May 25th to May 28th. I added the data to what I had charted previously. To review the full methodology that I have used, you can look at the previous article.

Providing Some Much Needed Clarity on Pre-Election Data and Trends

Based on the latest data, the Հայաստան alliance between the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ՀՅԴ), former president Robert Kocharyan, and Armenian Renaissance (ՎՀԿ) has further increases its dramatic momentum. In the latest data, among all voters, it now trails the ruling party by a mere 5.4 percent, down from 17.3 percent before the launch of their campaign.

To avoid confusion, please distinguish between the pro-government Republic Party (ՀԿ) of Aram Sargsyan and the former ruling party of Serzh Sargsyan, the Republican Party of Armenia (ՀՀԿ). On a similar note, distinguish between the aforementioned Republic Party (ՀԿ), and the Fatherland Party of Artur Vanetsyan (which has the same Armenian initials as ՀԿ) which is in an alliance with ՀՀԿ in the Պատիվ Ունեմ alliance. To avoid confusion, In this article I refer to Artur Vanetsyan’s party only in its full name and only in English, while I refer to Aram Sargsyan’s party as ՀԿ.

Using the polling data from above, as well as that of undecided voters, I tried to create an accurate picture of likely voters. Once again, you can refer to the previous article to get the full details of the methodology used.

If you are not familiar with the Armenian political landscape, please note that the ruling party and ՀԿ can be considered firmly in the socially liberal/pro-western/anti-nationalist government camp, while the equally liberal Bright Armenia Party (ԼՀԿ) can be considered somewhat in the government camp. On the opposition side, the Հայաստան and Պատիվ Ունեմ alliances can be considered firmly in the socially conservative/pro-Russia/nationalist opposition camp, with the equally socially conservative Prosperous Party of Armenia (ԲՀԿ) somewhat in the opposition camp, but largely limited to whatever best serves the personal interests of Gagik Tsarukyan. Both ԼՀԿ and ԲՀԿ can be expected to be willing to cross lines if it serves their interests.

---

Understanding This Data

Understanding the Electoral Code

The following are critical parts of the Armenian electoral code that must be understood. I only included the parts that are pertinent to the results of the current polling data:

• All political parties must receive a minimum of five percent of the vote to enter parliament. All political alliances must receive a minimum of seven percent. This means as things stand ԼՀԿ and ՀԿ being under five percent, and Պատիվ Ունեմ being under seven percent, would not enter parliament.
• If a party or coalition gets less than fifty-four percent, but more than fifty percent, they will be granted the additional seats needed to reach a fifty-four percent majority. (Please note the difference between a coalition and an alliance. A coalition is formed post-election between parties and alliances in order to form a ruling government. An example would be a coalition between the Հայաստան alliance, and ԲՀԿ. An alliance is formed pre-election, such as the Հայաստան alliance between ՀՅԴ, Robert Kocharyan, and ՎՀԿ or that of Պատիվ Ունեմ between ՀՀԿ and the Fatherland Party.)
• Parliamentary seats will be divided among parties and alliances that have cleared the necessary thresholds, based on the percentages of votes receives. Meaning as it stands (Scenario I), with Պատիվ Ունեմ and ԼՀԿ and ՀԿ not clearing the necessary thresholds, the ruling party would receive 51.8 percent of parliamentary seats, keeping control of the government (first graphic below). However, given the current trends of the polling, it’s difficult to imagine that this slim lead will hold if only the top three parties enter parliament.
• If ՀԿ manages to clear the five percent threshold (Scenario II), it will likely form a coalition with the ruling party, giving the ruling coalition 54.7 percent of parliamentary seats.

• If a ruling government is not formed within six days of the election, a runoff will be held between the top two parties, where the winner will receive the additional seats needed to reach fifty-four percent.

General Trends

Besides the obvious trend of the falling numbers of the ruling party and the rising numbers for the Հայաստան alliance, the other critical trends are those of Պատիվ Ունեմ alliance and ՀԿ. At this point it seems like Պատիվ Ունեմ will have a lot of difficulty in surpassing the seven percent threshold needed to enter parliament. On the other hand, ՀԿ seems to be picking up pace, providing a much needed boost to the fading numbers of the ruling party.

Conclusion

Given the dramatic pace at which the Հայաստան alliance seems to be picking up steam, even the worst case scenario of ՀԿ being the fourth party to enter parliament may not be enough to prevent a Հայաստան alliance victory. Based on current numbers, such a scenario would result in the ruling coalition gaining roughly 54.7 percent of seats, with the Robert Kocharyan led opposition controlling 45.3 percent of seats. However, given the fact that the leading opposition alliance was able to gain eight points on the ruling party in a single week, this margin will very likely not hold, given that there are three weeks left until elections. To avoid repeating points from last week, please refer to the previous article for a full analysis.

Providing Some Much Needed Clarity on Pre-Election Data and Trends